United, we will win vs China
– Sun Tzu, The Art of War
“China’s ultimate goal is to gain control of the region. The campaign to achieve this goal relies on creeping expansion, rather than major battles.” – Dr. A. Vuving
Commentary, news and Updates to China’s ADIZ in West PH Sea:
Now that we know that China’s ultimate goal is to gain control of the region and that the campaign to achieve this goal relies on creeping expansion, rather than major battles, the only way out is through a strong military alliance between Vietnam, the Philippines, the United States, Japan and India to address this dilemma with China’s South China Sea domination agenda.
Just like the title of this post ‘United, we will win vs China’, the following measures are the best legal and military game-changer strategy to uphold the international law and freedom of navigation in the South China sea, and defend the global commons against China’s fanatical self-declared 9-dash line historical claim:
1) unity and international support in the UN tribunal vs China’s historical claim;
2) the Philippines’ navy and military upgrade;
3) and military US Alliance via EDCA against China’s creeping expansion through coercive land grabbing and China’s ADIZ in West PH Sea
Included in this post are the following news updates exploring relevant issues:
- Expert unmasks China strategy of creeping expansion
- UN Tribunal arbitration between Vietnam, Philippines vs China
- Philippines to upgrade navy in S. China Sea
- Gov’t defends legality of EDCA before SC
- US Marine Scott Pemberton detained in Camp Aguinaldo
- Ricardo B Serrano videos, predictions and commentary
Dr. Alexander L. Vuving has unmasked China’s “grand strategy” of gaining control of the Asia Pacific Region by “creeping expansion” rather than waging major battles.
He writes in an essay posted by Commentators.com that China is creating its own islands in disputed areas of the South China Sea to leverage its claim on the strategic areas teeming with marine life and potentially huge oil and gas reserves.
Beijing’s territorial claims – based on its self-declared horseshoe-shaped, nine-dash line map – cover areas close to the coasts of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.
China claims practically the whole South China Sea, a vast expanse of water that encompasses islands, islets, atolls and reefs that stretches from the Paracels, Spratlys, Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea and Pulau and Natuna Islands in Indonesian waters.
“The ultimate goal is to gain control of the region. The campaign to achieve this goal relies on creeping expansion, rather than major battles,” wrote Vuving in a commentary aptly titled “China’s Grand-Strategy Challenge: Creating its own Islands in the South China Sea.”
Counter-measures
In the face of the creeping expansion, Vuving suggests the Association of Southeast Asian Nations could send international observers as part of ASEAN-China 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea to verify the constructions and exert diplomatic pressure to persuade to suspend the work.
Another way to challenge China’s strategy, Vuving says, is to take a page from Beijing’s own playbook.
“For example, in a first step, Vietnam can offer the Indian military access to naval facilities in Cam Ranh Bay and the U.S. military access to air bases in Da Nang, two of Vietnam’s most strategic locations along the South China Sea coast,” he says.
If China does not heed the message, the U.S. and Japanese militaries and coast guards could be offered access to Cam Ranh and Da Nang, from which they can patrol the South China Sea.
Ultimately, if China is still determined to “turn the South China Sea into a Chinese lake,” then a strong alliance between Vietnam, the Philippines, the United States, Japan and India is necessary to redress the imbalance of power,” Vuving says.
See Expert unmasks China strategy of creeping expansion
China’s Grand-Strategy Challenge: Creating its own Islands in the South China Sea.
UN Tribunal Arbitration
A month ago, Vietnam has joined with the Philippines challenging China’s 9-dash line claim via UN Tribunal together with the US backing that the claim is contrary to international law.
The Vietnam Foreign Ministry said the tribunal has jurisdiction to settle disputes concerning the interpretation of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Vietnam’s position on claims in the South China Sea, which it manifested in its submission to the arbitration tribunal in The Hague where the Philippine government is challenging China’s claims, was welcomed by the Philippine government as it was largely in accord with its position.
Both the Philippines and Vietnam, two South China Sea claimants that had the most number of confrontations with China, have accused China of intruding in their sovereign waters and harassing their fishermen and disrupting oil exploration in their respective territories.
International support
The United States, European Union and many Asian governments have supported the Philippines’ decision to seek a solution to the dispute through peaceful means “in accordance with international law” instead of military aggression.
A decision in favor of the Philippines (and Vietnam) would strengthen the rule of international law, Professor Carl Thayer of the Australian Defense Force Academy said.
“Using international law may be the ‘weapon of the weak’ but the valiant attempt by the Philippines (with Vietnam) to employ legal means to create a stable regional order will be viewed positively by most regional states, including those in the Association of South East Asian Nations,” Thayer said.
UNCLOS has no provisions for enforcement, but a favorable ruling will be seen as a moral victory for the Philippines and Vietnam.
Legal and foreign affairs experts say the outcome of the Philippines’ arbitration case is uncertain, and Manila must work harder on diplomatic and military tracks. See Rough Seas: Will PH lawfare work vs China?
PH lawyer: We can demolish China’s arguments
The Philippines’ counsel Paul Reichler says China’s position paper makes Manila’s job to defend its case easier. We can demolish China’s arguments.
Mr. Reichler is counting on international opinion to sway China’s response toward any judgment that doesn’t go China’s way. “It’s a terrible blow to a state’s prestige to defy a tribunal’s decision,” he says.
See Ruling on PH maritime case vs China seen next year
Vietnam joins Philippines in case vs China
United, we will win
Vietnam submitted its position on the Philippines’ historic arbitration case against China, the first time another South China Sea claimant formally used legal proceedings to challenge China’s expansive sea claims.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs made the announcement on Thursday, December 11, 2014 in response to questions on its stand about China’s position paper rejecting the arbitration case.
“To protect its legal rights and interests in the East Sea (Vietnam’s name for the South China Sea) which may be affected in the South China Sea Arbitration case, Vietnam has expressed its position to the Tribunal regarding this case, and requested the Tribunal to pay due attention to the legal rights and interests of Vietnam,” the ministry’s spokesperson Le Hai Binh said.
In a previous interview with Rappler, Vietnamese Ambassador to the Philippines Truong Trieu Duong said his country shares the Philippines’ concerns about China’s growing aggression in the sea.
“We’ve got to be united, and stand united. We will win,” Duong said in May.
Duong branded the 9-dash line as a “newly born idea” that “has been rejected by almost all countries, all claimants.” See Top PH judge uses China’s maps vs China
He said: “This act, I think, has been carefully considered, carefully calculated, and is a very, very serious act for China to realize its dream of a 9-dash line….It’s different from other acts before…just claiming, you know, some islands, things like that. But here, it is claiming the whole South China Sea.”
Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario has said that Vietnam was considering a possible arbitration case, and “they may try to consult with us.”
See Vietnam joins Philippines in case vs China
China’s sea claim ‘does not accord with intl law’ – US govt paper
A United States government report has challenged China’s claims in the South China Sea.
In a paper released last Friday, the US State Department’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environment and Scientific Affairs (OES) said that China’s claim on nearly the entirety of the South China Sea – an area within a so-called “nine-dash line” described by China – “does not accord with the international law of the sea.”
The 24-page study stated that China has failed to make any “cognizable historic claim” to the area.
“There appears to be no Chinese law, declaration, proclamation, or other official statement describing and putting the international community on notice of a historical claim to the waters within the dashed line,” the US paper said.
The study added that Chinese maps, even those dating back to 1947, are not enough to support maritime claims to the South China Sea.
“The various maps published by China also lack the precision, clarity and consistency that could convey the nature and scope of a maritime claim,” the document from the American government stated.
Conflicting claims
The Philippines is among the countries with conflicting territorial claims with China over resource-rich parts of the South China Sea, which Manila calls the West Philippine Sea.
The Philippines claims that the West Philippine Sea is part of its exclusive economic zone under international law. China, meanwhile, is asserting its historical claim over the area through the “nine-dash line.”
Last March, the Philippines brought its territorial dispute with China before the Netherlands-based Permanent Court of Arbitration. Beijing, however, has rejected the arbitration proceedings, repeatedly insisting on bilateral talks to settle to issue.
On Sunday, China again announced that it will not participate in the arbitration process, and denounced Manila’s for putting it under pressure over the case.
Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have claims in the South China Sea.
‘Historic claim’ is ‘contrary to int’l law’
Using the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as basis, the OES also concluded that China’s historic claim in the South China Sea “would be contrary to international law.”
The study said that the provisions of the UNCLOS on maritime zones – which were accepted by China as a signatory to the convention—favor sovereign rights of a coastal state over historic claims.
“The convention’s provisions prevail over any assertion of historic claims made in those areas,” the document stated.
The paper further maintained that China’s historic claims in the South China Sea would not pass the “three-part legal test” used in international law, since Beijing does not have “open, notorious, and effective exercise of authority” over the area.
China also does not have “continuous exercise of authority” in the South China Sea, and other states’ recognition of this authority, according to the US study.
“A claimant State therefore cannot rely on nonpublic or materially ambiguous claims as the foundation of acquiescence, but must instead establish its claims as openly and publicly, and with sufficient clarity,” the paper stated.
‘Unilateral maritime boundary’
The US study further stated that China could not use the nine-dash line to “unilaterally establish a maritime boundary with another country.”
“Assuming for the sake of argument that China has sovereignty over all the disputed islands, the maritime boundaries delimiting overlapping zones would need to be negotiated with the States with opposing coastlines,” the document read.
The paper also noted that the dashed line cannot be used to represent a limit on China’s territorial sea because these dashes go way beyond 12-nautical-mile maximum limit set by the UNCLOS.
“To the extent that dashed line indicates China’s unilateral position on the proper location of a maritime boundary with its neighbors, such a position would run counter to State practice and international jurisprudence on maritime boundary delimitation,” the study noted.
Through this document, the US also maintained that China should clarify its claim in the South China Sea, particularly Beijing’s claims over the islands within the nine-dash line, or maritime zones around these islands.
“Although the US government is active in protesting historic claims around the world that it deems excessive, the US has not protested the dashed line on these grounds because it does not believe such a claim has been made by China,” the American study stated.
See Sea dispute with China tested Philippines’ resolve
White House responds to South China Sea petitions vs China
China’s sea claim does not accord with intl law
Philippines to upgrade navy in South China Sea
The Philippines has announced plans to further modernize its navy in the South China Sea, where it is involved in a territorial dispute with Beijing.
Navy Rear Admiral Caesar Taccad said Wednesday Manila will purchase two frigates, two helicopters, and three gunboats as part of the upgrade. Taccad said South Korea, Spain, and France have made bids to supply the frigates. Indonesia and Italy are bidding for the helicopters, while the gunboats could be supplied by Taiwan or five other shipyards.
He made the announcement on board the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, a former U.S. Coast Guard cutter that is now Manila’s most powerful warship.
Taccad said the modernization aims to protect Philippine sovereignty and took on “some urgency” due to recent events in the South China Sea.
China’s claims nearly the entire 3.5 million square-kilometer sea, putting it at odds with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.
The disputes have become increasingly tense in recent years as countries increase exploration for oil and gas beneath the seabed.
In 2012, Chinese and Philippine ships were involved in a weeks-long standoff at the Scarborough Shoal, an uninhabited archipelago claimed by both countries.
Following the standoff, the Philippines took China to a United Nations court in hopes of settling a long-running dispute over territory in the South China Sea.
Beijing says it does not recognize international arbitration of the dispute and has refused to defend itself or otherwise take part in the proceedings.
China has not responded to Manila’s latest announcement on the upgrade, but has slammed past moves and said they are raising regional tensions.
See US donates two military aircraft to Philippines
Armed AW-109s to be delivered Monday
PN to set up maritime domain awareness centers; to acquire new weaponry
Yearender:AFP in defense mode against critics in 2014
Military eyes 2 more naval bases in Palawan
Expert unmasks China strategy of creeping expansion
AFP seeks focus on territorial defense in 2015
Philippines beefing up sea patrol assets
More ships, choppers arriving in 2015 to enhance PH Navy capability
Philippines to upgrade navy in South China Sea
2014: What’s happening with the AFP Modernization Program
Philippine Navy seeks military aid from Japan
Armed clashes in South China Sea possible next year
Gov’t defends legality of EDCA before SC
The government has firmed up its position on the constitutionality of the controversial Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US in a 42-page memorandum filed with the Supreme Court.
In the memorandum filed last Monday, December 15, 2014, Solicitor General Florin Hilbay sought the dismissal of the petitions filed by groups led by former senators Rene Saguisag and Wigberto Tañada last May seeking to declare EDCA unconstitutional.
Hilbay, who represents the Palace in the case, reiterated that the agreement is valid and can stand even without the concurrence of the Senate.
The top government lawyer argued that a referral to the Senate could be construed as nullification of the agreement for non-compliance of Article XVIII, Section 25 of the Constitution.
This provision states: “After the expiration in 1991 of the Agreement between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America concerning military bases, foreign military bases, troops or facilities shall not be allowed in the Philippines except under a treaty duly concurred in by the Senate and, when the Congress so requires, ratified by a majority of the votes cast by the people in a national referendum held for that purpose, and recognized as a treaty by the other contracting State.”
Hilbay explained that a referral, raised by Associate Justice Marvic Leonen during oral arguments last month, would diminish the President’s powers and in turn adversely affect the country’s standing in the international community.
He again stressed that EDCA is not a treaty as claimed by petitioners, but rather an implementing agreement of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement.
The SolGen also pointed out that executive agreements, which belong to a distinct category of legal instruments subject to judicial review, are allowed by the Constitution.
“Their view flies in the face of the text of the Constitution, the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court and the long-standing practice of the Executive Department. In fact, executive agreements are mentioned in the Constitution, in Article VIII, Section 4(2) and Article VIII, Section 5(2),”he argued.
Hilbay also cited the Senate’s silence and non-participation in the petitions as an affirmation of the President’s stance that the EDCA is a valid executive agreement.
“To date, the Senate has not issued a resolution expressing its objection to the EDCA, much less authorized any of its members to file a suit on its behalf,” he said.
Cheapening Constitution
He also called the attention of the SC to petitioner’s overuse of the “transcendental importance” factor, cheapening Constitutional safeguards and turning the high court into a venue for “historical grievances and purely symbolic claim.”
The SolGen likewise reiterated that EDCA is necessary in addressing external and internal security issues confronting the country, including the latter’s territorial dispute with China over islands in the West Philippine Sea.
Nullifying EDCA, he warned, “will bring incalculable damage to our national security.”
Hilbay also rejected the petitioners’ allegation that the EDCA would provide tax exemptions to the US.
See Gov’t defends legality of EDCA before SC
Solgen: Sending EDCA to Senate will embarrass Aquino
AFP steps up security at Pemberton detention facility
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has increased security around the US-controlled facility where Marine Lance Corporal Joseph Scott Pemberton is detained for the death of Filipino transgender Jeffrey “Jennifer” Laude.
More Filipino soldiers are guarding the two gated entrances leading to the compound of the Joint United States Military Advisory Group (JUSMAG) at Camp Aguinaldo, where the refurbished 20-foot shipping container housing Pemberton is located.
Another team of soldiers, apparently acting as reserve security force, is also manning their post in a nearby shaded area in the facility.
Since Thursday night, there were monitored activities of Filipino and US military personnel inside and outside the JUSMAG facility.
This was after the Olongapo City Regional Trial Court issued a warrant of arrest for Permberton and ordered him arraigned the following day for the murder case filed against him by prosecutors in connection with the death of Laude.
The US government delivered the warrant of arrest to Pemberton and in compliance with the court’s directive, it brought the American suspect out of JUSMAG at 4:30 a.m. Friday for his arraignment in Olongapo.
See Yearender: Transgender killing banners DOJ cases in 2014
Olongapo court suspends Pemberton’s trial for 2 months
Pemberton: No murder
AFP steps up security at Pemberton detention facility
Pemberton booked but not arraigned, to remain detained in Camp Aguinaldo
Murder raps vs Pemberton
Latest news on UNCLOS, AFP Modernization, EDCA, US Alliance vs China:
See Yearender: DFA grapples with China crisis, Ebola
Sea dispute with China tested Philippines’ resolve
US donates two military aircraft to Philippines
Armed AW-109s to be delivered Monday
Ruling on PH maritime case vs China seen next year
PN to set up maritime domain awareness centers; to acquire new weaponry
Yearender:AFP in defense mode against critics in 2014
Military eyes 2 more naval bases in Palawan
Expert unmasks China strategy of creeping expansion
Philippines beefing up sea patrol assets
More ships, choppers arriving in 2015 to enhance PH Navy capability
AFP steps up security at Pemberton detention facility
PH lawyer: China felt pressured to respond
PH lawyer: We can demolish China’s arguments
Philippines to upgrade navy in South China Sea
China to set up satellite, radar network to strengthen maritime power
Armed clashes in South China Sea possible next year
Gov’t defends legality of EDCA before SC
Solgen: Sending EDCA to Senate will embarrass Aquino
China snubs court deadline in West Philippine Sea case
US study backs Philippines’ tack on sea row
Pemberton booked but not arraigned, to remain detained in Camp Aguinaldo
Murder raps vs Pemberton
China rejects US Report on Sea Claims
Challenges mount to Beijing’s South China Sea claims
Vietnam’s sea row arbitration case vs China boosts peace: Manila
PH welcomes Vietnamese position on South China Sea arbitration
Cuisa slams China at US meet
New fighter jets the real thing for PAF pilots
Rough Seas: Will PH lawfare work vs China?
Vietnam supports PH position on South China Sea dispute
China, Vietnam clash again over South China Sea claims
Vietnam joins Philippines in case vs China
UN court may still get China side in sea row
PH to answer questions from UN tribunal on sea row
China condemns US report on South China Sea claims
China rejects a new PH initiated arbitration process over sea row
China denounces PH pressure over sea dispute arbitration
PH proceeds with case vs China over West PH sea
China’s Grand-Strategy Challenge: Creating its own Islands in the South China Sea
Aquino proposes comprehensive PH-ROK strategic partnership
Aquino confirms all 12 FA-50 fighter jets in by 2017
West Phillipine Sea Primer
Book proves Scarborough Shoal part of Philippine territory
The following videos by Ricardo B Serrano are about sea row disputes between China and Philippines in South China Sea (West Philippine Sea):
See my commentaries, news and updates at:
China’s ADIZ in West PH Sea
SC: EDCA is constitutional
VFA/EDCA needed to defend West PH Sea
China vs Philippines Ayungin Standoff
CCP, an outlaw vs US Alliance
US-Asia Pacific Alliance vs China
US, Philippines and Japan vs China
Our Geography is our Destiny
My predictions seven months ago:
I personally believe that the Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of EDCA to support President Aquino’s primary constitutional duty to serve and protect the people, promote national security, upgrade the AFP’s military facilities and preposition defense assets, and improve the military’s capabilities for humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR).
By next year or so, I believe that China will establish an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the West Philippine Sea where they are building a naval base with airstrip now at Kagitingan Reef in the Spratly islands, and where the war will be between China and the US Alliance (Vietnam, Australia, US, Japan and other claimants).
“I believe that regardless of a favorable outcome of the Philippine’s memorial submission to ITLOS, China will still use threats of force, intimidation, coercion and gunboat diplomacy because China will disregard the arbitration outcome and a tribunal can’t stop China from bullying its neighbors posing a complicated challenge to the region’s peace and security unless a necessary boost in military hardware upgrade capability in the Philippines is attained together with a US asia-pacific alliance, sanctions and a strong international support to militarily confront or deter China’s armed invasion collectively thereby upholding the rule of international law, unimpeded trade and freedom of navigation. What other viable peaceful options do we have to resolve China’s fanatical expansion agenda with invasive armed aggression?
With China’s disregard to UN arbitration and international law’s UNCLOS by its illegal declaration of sovereignty to all of South China Sea with its unilateral attempts to assert its bogus 9-dash line claims through its show of intimidation or force in the Philippines and Vietnam, will the group of G-7 still remain silent to China’s military intentions or act on its mandate to oppose China’s actions now?
Since the problem is a state of unpreparedness – the lack of military capability of the AFP now, I believe that a viable alternative or contingency measure to the current sea dispute situation between China and the Philippines would be for the G-7 allies to provide the AFP with the necessary training and credible number of military hardware such as warships, missiles, fighter planes, and drones, on loans, to counter Chinese invasion of Philippine reefs and shoals.
Well trained and credible armed Filipino soldiers have done their own fighting before against internal terrorists, in the Korean war and in WW2 and as first defenders before other nations will intervene, AFP will fight these Chinese invaders and outlaws again with a credible military hardware upgrade to protect its sovereignty and prevent further loss of more rich natural resource Philippine territories to China.”
China keeps on saying that ASEAN claimants must adhere to the Code of Conduct (COC) but at the same time China simply violates that rule and says that it has the right to do whatever it wants in the Spratley’s.
China keeps on building structures and even doing reclamation works despite repeatedly stressing that all claimants must adhere to the COC, which includes stopping any development of any uninhabited area.
In this sense, China is fooling everybody including the US and the global community just like how it stole Mischief Reef.
The Philippines must be reminded of China’s “talk and take strategy”.
It fooled President Noynoy when Noynoy agreed to the withdrawal of ships from Scarborough. Eventually, the Philippine ships were called back to port but the Chinese simply laughed at President Noynoy for believing the Chinese.
Now, that the US has maintained the position of not intervening (unless a war breaks out) then China will probably pursue its objective.
Our only chance is the economic sanctions and making the US and its allies support that sanction. PNoy must work with the US in building a new trade pact that will replace whatever will be lost when we slap China with economic sanctions. Treat ASEAN as one solid economic bloc that will replace the lost Chinese market.
Definitely, we will enforce an enhanced sanction when the UN tribunal announces the decision. Let the US and the rest of the G7 plus EU support that effort.
Traits of the Communist Party – evil, deceit, incitement, unleashing the scum of society, espionage, robbery, fighting, elimination, and control.
From my experience as a Classical Chinese medical practitioner for over 30 years, most of my rehabilitation clients who have drug and alcohol addictions also have PTSD, sexual addictions and sexual behavior problems.
Acupuncture, herbs, acupressure with meditation and Qigong instructions have greatly assisted my rehabilitation clients and have been transformed into Self-realized individuals after their rehabilitation through Classical Chinese Medicine. They have tried conventional western therapies without success.
I believe that rehabilitating rather than condemning foreign servicemen who committed sexual crimes in the Philippines is the path to take. Future sexual crimes can be avoided by foreign servicemen through the availability of drug-free natural therapies such as Classical Chinese Medicine with Qigong instructions.
I also believe that EDCA with its implementing Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) should be reviewed rather than scrapped because the Philippines needs it to defend West Philippine Sea from China’s creeping incursions in the Philippine territories with joint military capability of US servicemen and military hardware.
Fanaticism and extreme measures by politicians and militants to scrap EDCA with VFA should be discouraged and replaced with common sense and respect for Filipino’s foremost constitutional right in protecting our territorial sovereignty from China’s creeping invasion rather than being fixated in the sexual crime of one US servicemen to a Filipino citizen which should be legally handled solely.
Recycling of sexual energy heals sexual behavior problems
I believe that the root behavioral problem of not only US Marines or any US servicemen but also other male soldiers from other countries doing crimes against women, transgender, bisexual or children is their own unguarded thoughts – that their worst enemy is not their opponent but their own unguarded thoughts.
Recycling of sexual energy (Jing Qi) through meditation and Qigong helps sexual behavior problems and PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder).
My six books on meditation and Qigong offer a solution to this sexual behavioral problem for healing and spiritual awakening. Peace be with you!
See Soul Affirmation and Meditation on Three Hearts
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